Friday, September 18, 2009

Fun with Predictions

Lets try a post that might’nt make much sense. The first of its kind.

The joy of living is in the uncertainties and the surprises thrown up each instant. But certainties can be fun too.

For example, lets say I was closely observing the behaviour patterns of certain individuals over a long time period, and based on recurring patterns and themes, made a hypothesis of expected future behaviour

It was almost like a mathematical regression. Finding out the general trend and the cyclicity. And developing a rough formula based on cycles and environmental inputs. And the formula was shared. Then plugging in values of certain environmental condition variables at any point in time to get an output of expected response and behaviour.

In simple terms, predicting what they would do next.

And bingo! The actual behaviour followed in copybook fashion. All the indicative parameters confirm it. I don’t know whether to feel vindicated or amazed. Either way, it gives quite a kick.

Try it some time. The thrill of concurrence and certainty can be heady.

P.S: Once upon a time I used to be a master at saying minimum in maximum number of words. A pro at pedantic and longwinded form of writing that gave me a high. Until the corporate world and subsequently MBA with their penchant for precise writing ruined me. This is an attempt at a quick trip into those good-old-days.


Sunday, September 06, 2009

The B-School “Fin-Guy”

Just felt like getting inside the head of a “Fin-Guy”. The post stems from my observation of behaviour exhibited by three batches over one year at a B-School. Use of the word “Guy” is not intended in a sexist way. It seemed the best word to use.

There are certain words which trigger huge reactions in a B-School. “Placement” is one of them. But this post is to talk about another one - “Finance”

I will classify the typical “Fin-Guy”. The classification is mainly on the basis of the reasons that made them take it. We aren’t talking of how good or bad they are at it. Refer the adjoining Pyramid, obviously narrowing at the top.

Fin Lovers : People who intrinsically like it, and have full appreciation of how it is integral to their career. The Fin gods form a small subset of this set, the ones who like it and are really good at it.

Generalists : Though they don’t like it particularly, they realise it is a necessary evil that is required in some of their future plans and hence unavoidable. It also includes people with other core specializations, wanting to know some aspects of finance.

Sequential Processors: Most likely number lovers, these people believe their mind and thought process is suited for it but are still unsure if they like it. They would typically say all MBA is fuzzy logic and X input can give infinite outputs. Finance, to them is the only area in MBA where X input will give Y output.

Herd Members: They think it will be something good for them and hence go with the flow in the hope that it will bear fruit. Everyone’s doing it let me too.

Unfortunately an overwhelming majority forms part of the fourth group.

The evidence is in overflowing classrooms and crazy number of subscriptions to Finance interest groups right after stepping into college. A Pre-set mindset without exploring any options. There is also a mad scramble for finance certifications Most people don’t know what they are but they know it is “desirable if you want to get into finance”. Getting into finance is the central theme. Sometimes the love is absurd. While selecting a topic for a Strategy or a Marketing project, without having an idea of what the topic is, people invariably pick the topic if the magic word “Finance” or any of its derivatives “Financial” etc appear in the title. Then there is the mad scramble for finance companies. Maybe even some demand supply economics act on the psyche.

This brings us to the next factor about motivation. Whatever the reason might be out of the above four, the fact is it is motivating enough to make people,say,attend Finance workshops,for example. The same people who crib at attending any other kind of session would wake up early morning and readily go and attend a long Finance workshop. Even prepare for the session beforehand. Which is good.

The takeaway, though very generic, is that give people what they think they want, or atleast associate your offering in some way to hit that sweet spot, and they would come in droves. Conversely, coercion to push unwanted offerings rarely works.

The fortunate part is that such devotion tends to shift people up the Pyramid (or the reason chain).

Everyone might not end up at the top of the pyramid but atleast they move up. Which is good for them and good for the society. Also, the love and devotion generates huge motivation which makes many people persistent to overcome difficulties,for example while learning tough concepts.

Here’s wishing more people progress up the pyramid, and may it ideally become an inverted pyramid.