Friday, September 18, 2009

Fun with Predictions

Lets try a post that might’nt make much sense. The first of its kind.

The joy of living is in the uncertainties and the surprises thrown up each instant. But certainties can be fun too.

For example, lets say I was closely observing the behaviour patterns of certain individuals over a long time period, and based on recurring patterns and themes, made a hypothesis of expected future behaviour

It was almost like a mathematical regression. Finding out the general trend and the cyclicity. And developing a rough formula based on cycles and environmental inputs. And the formula was shared. Then plugging in values of certain environmental condition variables at any point in time to get an output of expected response and behaviour.

In simple terms, predicting what they would do next.

And bingo! The actual behaviour followed in copybook fashion. All the indicative parameters confirm it. I don’t know whether to feel vindicated or amazed. Either way, it gives quite a kick.

Try it some time. The thrill of concurrence and certainty can be heady.

P.S: Once upon a time I used to be a master at saying minimum in maximum number of words. A pro at pedantic and longwinded form of writing that gave me a high. Until the corporate world and subsequently MBA with their penchant for precise writing ruined me. This is an attempt at a quick trip into those good-old-days.


5 comments:

Shruti ;) said...

I cannot say i agree with your post script. You were always fairly laconic!

eternalmonotony said...

Well not really.. maybe i've been turning laconic along the 5-6 years after you turned to Shruti.:P. I definitely wasnt as laconic as now 6 years ago.

krips said...

may be u'll elaborate on the selection of variables (or the function definition) and supplement it with some examples next time, for the less equipped (cerebral side of course) mortals like me.

FUN!

Ajith Prasad Balakrishnan said...

Haha...if it is observations in IIMK, would like to read some examples on the traits & associated predictions :)

Divinite said...

It is not difficult to pre guess the behavior of people you know and/ or are close to.

At some level we all follow our set routines. Very rarely do we take a different path.

But yeah, even I would like to know the variables you used along with a couple of good examples. :)